Geopolitics & Ammonium Sulphate  Will History Repeat Itself?
📍 June 13, 2025 – Israel–Iran conflict escalated
📍 June 16, 2025 – China ammonium sulphate entered a rapid surge phase
📍 By June 20, 2025 – Prices reached the highest level of the year, up approximately USD 55/MT
However, the rally proved to be short-lived.
📍 By July 4, 2025 – Prices gradually returned to a more rational market level.
Fast forward to 2026:
📍 February 28, 2026 – The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran
The incident once again drew strong attention from the global fertilizer market.
📍 March 1 – International urea prices entered a rapid surge phase
📍 March 2 – China ammonium sulphate increased by USD 4/MT per day
The rapid price movement immediately triggered a wave of withholding supply.
Offers tightened, sellers turned cautious, and market sentiment heated up quickly.
But there is an important difference this time: Ammonium sulphate is already trading at a relatively high level.
The coming weeks will determine whether this is a temporary sentiment-driven surge, or the beginning of a new upward cycle.