The Israeli-Iranian conflict - particularly if it escalates or spreads into broader regional tensions in the Red Sea or Arab/Persian Gulf - could significantly impact global fertiliser trade. Below is a breakdown of the fertilisers most at risk and the mechanisms behind potential disruptions.

1. Potash (MOP) - Directly from Israel

Key exporter: ICL (Israel Chemicals Ltd.), producing ~3–4 million tonnes per year.

Main destinations: Europe, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia.

Risk: Any escalation or port closures (e.g. Ashdod, Haifa) would directly impact ICL’s ability to export.

Impact: A shutdown or rerouting of Israeli MOP could tighten supply, particularly in Europe and Latin America, where ICL is a major supplier.

2. Nitrogen (Urea/Ammonia) - Indirect Disruption via Persian/Arab Gulf

Major producers: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Egypt.

Strategic chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global LNG and oil passes.

Risk: Conflict or naval tensions could disrupt gas flows, pushing up feedstock costs. Egypt has already experienced gas supply disruptions.

Impact: Any interference in this corridor could ripple across producers like SABIC, QAFCO, Ma’aden, raising global nitrogen prices through both cost inflation and shipping delays.

3. Phosphates - Delays via Suez/Red Sea Disruption

Key exporters: Morocco (OCP), Egypt (Abu Zaabal, Alexfert), Saudi Arabia (Ma’aden).

Exposure: Phosphate exports largely transit through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Risk: Renewed or escalated attacks (e.g. by Houthis) would:

Force rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Increase freight costs and shipping times to India, Southeast Asia, and East Africa.

Impact: While Israel’s phosphate role is minor, logistics bottlenecks in the region would delay supply and raise landed costs for key buyers.

4. Sulphur - Highly Exposed to Maritime Risk

Main producers/exporters: Saudi Arabia (Aramco, Ma’aden), UAE (ADNOC), Qatar (QAFCO), Iran, Kuwait.

Top importers: China, India, Morocco - for use in MAP, DAP, TSP, SSP, and sulphuric acid.

Risk: Sulphur exports rely heavily on both the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal.

Further tension would compound delays already seen from Houthi-linked attacks.

Impact: Rising freight rates and supply disruptions to major processors:

Morocco (OCP), India (SSP, TSP plants), China (industrial and agri use)

Spot prices for sulphur - especially CFR East Asia and India - could rally sharply.

Phosphate production margins would be pressured by higher sulphur input costs.

From Ilya Mortorgin