We are entering a phase where the fertiliser market is no longer about agriculture.
It is about geopolitics, energy, logistics and risk. (I know I’ve said this before — but it is worth repeating.)
Look at the map. Venezuela - sanctions, oil, political instability. And yet, paradoxically, it may drive oil prices lower in the future.
Iran - unrest, pressure, sanctions, gas redirected to residential heating. No gas means no ammonia. No ammonia means no urea. And don’t forget sulphur.
Israel - risk of escalation. Egypt depends on gas from Israel’s Leviathan field.
Red Sea, Suez, Persian Gulf - war-risk premiums.
One missile in the region adds tens of dollars to freight overnight.
The Arctic and the discussion around Greenland are no longer about politics. This is about future LNG routes, new ports, and control over raw material flows.
Russia - sanctions, a shadow fleet, new routes, new payment schemes. Businessmen disappear. Diplomats die. Insurance premiums go up.
It is an energy story. A shipping story. A geopolitical story.
Farmers need nitrogen, phosphorus and potash.
But for them to arrive, the world first needs not to explode along the way.
Welcome to the new normal.
transfer from Ilya Motorygin
